One fall, a Native American chief instructed the members of his tribe to gather firewood for the winter. Shortly afterward he decided to contact the local office of the Bureau of Indian Affairs to see if the government knew anything about the severity of the upcoming winter.
The representative of the Bureau told him the winter was predicted to be severe, so he told the members of his tribe to increase their stores of firewood.
Again he called the Bureau to inquire about what they knew about the upcoming winter. This time they told him it was predicted to be the coldest winter in many years – perhaps even the coldest ever.
"How do you know for sure?" asked the chief. The Bureau representative answered, "Because the Indians are gathering firewood like crazy!"
That story is a parable about a lot of people I know.